Low Stabilization Scenarios and Implications for Major World Regions from an Integrated Assessment Perspective

Detlef P. van Vuuren, Morna Isaac, Michel G.J. den Elzen, Elke Stehfest and Jasper van Vliet

The Energy Journal, 2010, vol. 31, issue 1_suppl, 165-192

Abstract: In order to limit global mean temperature increase to less than 2°C, long-term greenhouse gas concentrations must remain low. This paper discusses how such low concentrations can be reached, based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework (including TIMER and FAIR). We show that the attainability of low greenhouse gas concentration targets, in particular 450 and 400 ppm CO2 equivalent critically depends on model assumptions, such as bio-energy potentials. Under standard model assumptions, these targets can be reached, although the lowest requires the use of bio-energy in combination with carbon-capture-and-storage. Regions are affected differently by ambitious climate policies in terms of energy and land use, although stringent emission reductions will be required in all regions. Resulting co-benefits of climate policy (such as energy security and air pollution) are also different across world regions.

Keywords: IMAGE model; TIMER; FAIR; Climate policy; Carbon capture and storage; GHG emissions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:enejou:v:31:y:2010:i:1_suppl:p:165-192

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-7

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