Bio-Energy Use and Low Stabilization Scenarios

Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elie Bellevrat, Alban Kitous and Morna Isaac

The Energy Journal, 2010, vol. 31, issue 1_suppl, 193-222

Abstract: This paper explores the potential for bio-energy production, and the implications of different values for the attainability of low stabilization targets. The impact of scenarios of future land use, yield improvements for bio-energy and available land under different sustainability assumptions (protection of biodiversity, risks of water scarcity and land degradation) are explored. Typical values for sustainable potential of bio-energy production are around 50-150 EJ in 2050 and 200-400 EJ in 2100. Higher bio-energy potential requires a development path with high agricultural yields, dietary patterns with low meat consumption, a low population and/or accepting high conversion rates of natural areas. Scenario analysis using four different models shows that low stabilization levels may be achieved with a bio-energy potential of around 200 EJ p.a. In such scenarios, bio-energy is in most models mainly used outside the transport sector.

Keywords: Bio-Energy use; Low climate stabilization; Integrated assessment models; Land use (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:enejou:v:31:y:2010:i:1_suppl:p:193-222

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-8

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