Cross-product Manipulation in Electricity Markets, Microstructure Models and Asymmetric Information

Chiara Lo Prete, William W. Hogan, Bingyuan Liu and Jia Wang

The Energy Journal, 2019, vol. 40, issue 5, 221-246

Abstract: Electricity market manipulation enforcement actions have moved from conventional analysis of generator market power in real-time physical markets to material allegations of sustained cross-product price manipulation in forward financial markets. A major challenge is to develop and apply forward market analytical frameworks and models. This task is more difficult than for the real-time market. An adaptation of cross-product manipulation models from cash-settled financial markets provides an existence demonstration under uncertainty and asymmetric information. The implications of this analysis include strong empirical predictions about necessary randomized strategies that are not likely to be observed or sustainable in electricity markets. Absent these randomized strategies and other market imperfections, the means for achieving sustained forward market price manipulation remains unexplained.

Keywords: Market manipulation; Electricity markets; Limits to arbitrage; Asymmetric information (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:enejou:v:40:y:2019:i:5:p:221-246

DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.5.cpre

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