The Use of NYMEX Options to Forecast Crude Oil Prices

James A. Overdahl and H.Lee Matthews

The Energy Journal, 1988, vol. 9, issue 4, 135-148

Abstract: The recent introduction of traded options on crude oil futures contracts at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) gives energy economists a new tool for forecasting the price of crude oil. Since the pricing of these options requires that market participants assess the probability distribution of future crude oil prices, a properly specified model of option pricing can be used to "back out" this assessment from observed option prices.

Keywords: NYMEX options; Oil prices; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1988
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:enejou:v:9:y:1988:i:4:p:135-148

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No4-7

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