Describing Technological Development with Quantitative Models

Stine Grenaa Jensen
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Stine Grenaa Jensen: Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark

Energy & Environment, 2004, vol. 15, issue 2, 187-200

Abstract: Up until now, the experience curve has been used as instrument for predicting development in costs of renewable energy technologies. This feature has been used several times in long-term optimisation models, where the experience curve describes technological development in the form of cost reduction over a long period of time. Considering long prediction periods expresses the need for relatively good estimation methods. This along with the increased knowledge of innovation theory has called for a discussion of models to describe cost reduction in order to have more precise predictions. This article aims at a discussion of three methods to describe the development, using the case study of Danish wind power. Therefore, the key result is a list of different models and their pros and cons with respect to the selection of quantitative models describing technological development in the form of cost reduction.

Keywords: Renewable energy; technological development; quantitative models; wind power; experience curves (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:engenv:v:15:y:2004:i:2:p:187-200

DOI: 10.1260/095830504323153397

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