Can we Predict the Next Indian Mega-Famine?

Ian R. G. Wilson
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Ian R. G. Wilson: Queensland Department of Education, Training and the Arts, Australia.

Energy & Environment, 2009, vol. 20, issue 1, 11-24

Abstract: Catastrophic multi-year failure of the Indian monsoon has caused at least eight mega-famines in India over the last 1100 years. Historical data shows that seven out of the eight mega-famines have either started within ± one year of the year of greatest asymmetry in the Sun's motion about the Solar System's centre-of-mass, or 11 years ± one year after this event. The Sun is currently experiencing a maximum in the asymmetry of its motion about the centre-of-mass. Evidence is presented to show that there is almost a 1-in-4 the chance that there will be another Indian mega-famine in 2018–20. While the chance of such a catastrophic event occurring is small, it is large enough that the governments on the Indian subcontinent should take precautionary measures to confront this potentially devastating threat.

Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:engenv:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:11-24

DOI: 10.1260/095830509787689132

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