A Null Hypothesis for CO2

Roy Clark
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Roy Clark: Ventura Photonics 1336 N. Moorpark Road #224 Thousand Oaks, CA 91360 USA 805-701-3705

Energy & Environment, 2010, vol. 21, issue 4, 171-200

Abstract: Energy transfer at the Earth's surface is examined from first principles. The effects on surface temperature of small changes in the solar constant caused by the sunspot cycle and small increases in downward long wave infrared (LWIR) flux due to a 100 ppm increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration are considered in detail. The changes in the solar constant are sufficient to change ocean temperatures and alter the Earth's climate. The surface temperature changes produced by an increase in downward LWIR flux are too small to be measured and cannot cause climate change. The assumptions underlying the use of radiative forcing in climate models are shown to be invalid. A null hypothesis for CO 2 is proposed that it is impossible to show that changes in CO 2 concentration have caused any climate change, at least since the current composition of the atmosphere was set by ocean photosynthesis about one billion years ago.

Keywords: Carbon Dioxide; Global Warming; Greenhouse Effect; Maunder Minimum; Meteorological Surface Air Temperature; Milankovitch Cycles; Ocean Warming; Radiative Forcing; Radiative Transfer; Sunspot Cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:engenv:v:21:y:2010:i:4:p:171-200

DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.21.4.171

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