Short Term Global Dt Prediction Using (60–70)-Years Periodicity

Alexey A. Lyubushin and Leonid B. Klyashtorin

Energy & Environment, 2012, vol. 23, issue 1, 75-85

Abstract: The variations of climate with periods within the narrow-banded range from 60 up to 70 years are considered. The existence of climate variations with these periods is proved by time-frequency spectral analysis of scalar time series and by joint multiple spectral analysis of 3 well-known synchronous climatic time series covering the time interval 553–1973. Prediction of global temperature anomaly dT based on applying cyclic trend with period 66 years was made for the future time interval of the length 20 years. The main peculiarity of this prediction is the decreasing of global dT (i.e. global cooling instead of global warming) which started at 2008 and will be continuing during 2011–2030. Estimates of cyclic trends for temperature anomalies of North and South hemispheres separately give periods 69 and 63 years correspondently. These results are based on using of dT data for time interval 1850–2010. They confirm the earlier results of authors which was published at 2003 about starting the global cooling process at 2008. If the global cooling cyclic trend for nearest 20 years will be approved this will have a serious consequences in changing of global energetic politics. For example, extensive plans about using Arctic resources in the near future, as is now frequently announced by governments in connection with the melting ice cover of the Arctic Ocean, are out of question.

Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:engenv:v:23:y:2012:i:1:p:75-85

DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.23.1.75

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