Overcoming Chaotic Behavior of General Circulation Models (Gcms)

S. Fred Singer
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S. Fred Singer: University of Virginia/ Science & Environmental Policy Project, Arlington, VA 22202

Energy & Environment, 2013, vol. 24, issue 3-4, 397-403

Abstract: General Circulation Climate Models are based on non-linear partial differential equations and therefore exhibit chaotic characteristics. Each run leads to a different temperature trend value, depending on the exact initial conditions. Modelers therefore constrain the trend value by producing an “ensemble-mean†of several runs. We show here that at least 16 runs of 25-year length are necessary to achieve convergence – and at least 4 runs of 100-year length. Contrary to expectations, we find that these numbers do not depend on the magnitude of radiative forcing of the GCM.

Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:engenv:v:24:y:2013:i:3-4:p:397-403

DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.24.3-4.397

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