Solar and Planetary Oscillation Control on Climate Change: Hind-Cast, Forecast and a Comparison with the Cmip5 Gcms

Nicola Scafetta
Additional contact information
Nicola Scafetta: Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) Lab, Coronado, CA 92118, USA, & Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA

Energy & Environment, 2013, vol. 24, issue 3-4, 455-496

Abstract: Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background warming modulation. The latter is related to a long millennial solar oscillation and to changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere (e.g. aerosol and greenhouse gases). However, current general circulation climate models, e.g. the CMIP5 GCMs, to be used in the AR5 IPCC Report in 2013, fail to reconstruct the observed climatic oscillations. As an alternate, an empirical model is proposed that uses: (1) a specific set of decadal, multidecadal, secular and millennial astronomic harmonics to simulate the observed climatic oscillations; (2) a 0.45 attenuation of the GCM ensemble mean simulations to model the anthropogenic and volcano forcing effects. The proposed empirical model outperforms the GCMs by better hind-casting the observed 1850–2012 climatic patterns. It is found that: (1) about 50–60% of the warming observed since 1850 and since 1970 was induced by natural oscillations likely resulting from harmonic astronomical forcings that are not yet included in the GCMs; (2) a 2000–2040 approximately steady projected temperature; (3) a 2000–2100 projected warming ranging between 0.3°C and 1.6° C , which is significantly lower than the IPCC GCM ensemble mean projected warming of 1.1° C to 4.1° C ; (4) an equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO 2 doubling centered in 1.35°C and varying between 0.9°C and 2.0°C.

Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1260/0958-305X.24.3-4.455 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:engenv:v:24:y:2013:i:3-4:p:455-496

DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.24.3-4.455

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Energy & Environment
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().