Sea Level Changes past Records and Future Expectations

Nils-Axel Mörner
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Nils-Axel Mörner: Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Rösundavägen 17, 13336 Saltsjöbaden, Sweden

Energy & Environment, 2013, vol. 24, issue 3-4, 509-536

Abstract: The history and development of our understanding of sea level changes is reviewed. Sea level research is multi-fascetted and calls for integrated studies of a large number of parameters. Well established records indicate a post-LIA (1850–1950) sea level rise of 11 cm. During the same period of time, the Earth's rate of rotation experienced a slowing down (deceleration) equivalent to a sea level rise of about 10 cm. Sea level changes during the last 40–50 years are subjected to major controversies. The methodology applied and the views claimed by the IPCC are challenged. For the last 40–50 years strong observational facts indicate virtually stable sea level conditions. The Earth's rate of rotation records a mean acceleration from 1972 to 2012, contradicting all claims of a rapid global sea level rise, and instead suggests stable, to slightly falling, sea levels. Best estimates for future sea level changes up to the year 2100 are in the range of +5 cm ±15 cm.

Keywords: Sea level changes; driving forces; physical frames; Earth's rotation; eustasy; glacial isostasy; tide gauges; satellite altimetry; future perspectives (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:engenv:v:24:y:2013:i:3-4:p:509-536

DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.24.3-4.509

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