Influence of Sunspots on Global Mean Surface Temperature

Dan Pangburn

Energy & Environment, 2014, vol. 25, issue 8, 1455-1471

Abstract: The influence of variations in solar activity on earth's surface temperature is a key question in climate-change attribution. On the basis of natural cyclic sea surface temperatures and the annual mean daily sunspot number as a proxy for variability in solar influence on the energy retained by the planet, a predictive equation derived from well-understood physical principles proves capable of reproducing observed anomalies in annual global mean surface temperature since before 1900 with 90% accuracy (R 2 = 0.9049). This accuracy results even where a zero-contribution from changes in greenhouse-gas concentrations is assumed. Here we show that the cumulative influence of the unusually elevated solar activity in the 64 years 1941–2005, as calculated using the time-integral of sunspot number anomalies (with a proxy factor) might have been a primary cause of the global warming observed through 2001. After 2001 the low solar activity is consistent with the observed flat average global temperature trend. The physically-based predictive equation, with the widely-projected decline in solar activity, moderated by the substantial effective thermal capacitance of the planet, especially the oceans, projects a downtrend steeper than 0.1K/decade.

Keywords: Climate change; temperature prediction; sunspot number integral; Global Warming (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:engenv:v:25:y:2014:i:8:p:1455-1471

DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.25.8.1455

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