An Estimate of the Centennial Variability of Global Temperatures

Philip J. Lloyd
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Philip J. Lloyd: Energy Institute, Cape Peninsula University of Technology, Cape Town P.O.Box 652 Cape Town 8000

Energy & Environment, 2015, vol. 26, issue 3, 417-424

Abstract: There has been widespread investigation of the drivers of changes in global temperatures. However, there has been remarkably little consideration of the magnitude of the changes to be expected over a period of a few decades or even a century. To address this question, the Holocene records up to 8000 years before present, from several ice cores were examined. The differences in temperatures between all records which are approximately a century apart were determined, after any trends in the data had been removed. The differences were close to normally distributed. The average standard deviation of temperature was 0.98 ± 0.27 o C. This suggests that while some portion of the temperature change observed in the 20th century was probably caused by greenhouse gases, there is a strong likelihood that the major portion was due to natural variations.

Keywords: Global temperatures; natural variation; ice core; Holocene (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:engenv:v:26:y:2015:i:3:p:417-424

DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.26.3.417

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