The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Scientific “Consensus†on Global Warming

Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. Knappenberger

Energy & Environment, 1996, vol. 7, issue 4, 333-348

Abstract: Climate data support the “moderate†prediction of climate change (l-1.5°C) rather than the more extreme scenario (4°C or more). The moderate point of view was originally marginalized in the IPCC “consensus†process in both the 1990 First Assessment on Climate Change and in the 1992 Update prepared specifically for the Earth Summit and to provide backing for the Rio Framework Convention on Climate Change. It is now accepted, based on ground-based data, that the errors in those models are currently between 160% and 360%. If one compares them to the satellite data combined with the land record, the error rises to a maximum of 720%. In some recognition of this massive error, the 1995 IPCC “consensus†is that warming has been mitigated by sulfate aerosols. However, when that hypothesis is specifically tested, it fails. Further, data required to test the validity of the sulfate enhanced greenhouse models was withheld by the IPCC. despite repeated requests.

Date: 1996
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:engenv:v:7:y:1996:i:4:p:333-348

DOI: 10.1177/0958305X9600700403

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