Forecasting Global HIV—AIDS Dynamics: Modelling Strategies and Preliminary Simulations

R W Thomas
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R W Thomas: School of Geography, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, England

Environment and Planning A, 1994, vol. 26, issue 7, 1147-1166

Abstract: In the light of the considerable biomathematical effort devoted to building models of the incidence of HIV and AIDS in communities, in this paper a multiregion specification is developed that includes a parsimonious cross-infection mechanism where high-risk and low-risk populations are distinguished by their promiscuity rates. The nature of this mixing is compared with some existing modelling formats, and some preliminary simulations are presented for the timing and spread of the epidemic in a sixteen-city global system.

Date: 1994
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:envira:v:26:y:1994:i:7:p:1147-1166

DOI: 10.1068/a261147

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