Using Census Data to Investigate the Causes of the Ecological Fallacy

M Tranmer and D G Steel
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M Tranmer: Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton SO17 1BJ
D G Steel: School of Mathematics and Applied Statistics, University of Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia

Environment and Planning A, 1998, vol. 30, issue 5, 817-831

Abstract: The authors show how data from the 2% Sample of Anonymised Records (SAR) can be combined with data from the Small Area Statistics (SAS) database to investigate the causes of the ecological fallacy in an Enumeration District (ED) level analysis. A range of census variables are examined in three ‘SAR districts’ (local authority districts with populations of 120 000 or more, or combinations of contiguous districts with smaller populations) in England. Results of comparable analyses from the 1986 Australian census are also given. The ecological fallacy arises when results from an analysis based on area-level aggregate statistics are incorrectly assumed to apply at the individual level. In general the results are different because individuals in the same area tend to have similar characteristics: a phenomenon known as within-area homogeneity. A statistical model is presented which allows for within-area homogeneity. This model may be used to explain the effects of aggregation on variances, covariances, and correlations. A methodology is introduced which allows aggregate-level statistics to be adjusted by using individual-level information on those variables that explain much of the within-area homogeneity. This methodology appears to be effective in adjusting census data analyses, and the results suggest that the SAR is a valuable source of adjustment information for aggregate data analyses from census and other sources.

Date: 1998
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:envira:v:30:y:1998:i:5:p:817-831

DOI: 10.1068/a300817

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