Forecasting Urban Land-Use Demand Using a Metropolitan Input-Output Model

Myung-Jin Jun
Additional contact information
Myung-Jin Jun: Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Chung-Ang University, Ansung, Kyunggido, South Korea

Environment and Planning A, 2005, vol. 37, issue 7, 1311-1328

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to develop an urban land-use-demand forecast model using a metropolitan input–output model and gravity-type spatial interaction models. The feasibility of the proposed model is tested with actual data from the Seoul metropolitan area by estimating the effects of urban-growth-control policy on urban economy, employment, population, and land-use demand. Three main features are highlighted: (1) the proposed model can estimate and project urban land-use demand on a firm theoretical foundation because land-use demand is determined by the interindustrial and interspatial relations of production, income formation, and consumption through metropolitan input–output multipliers; (2) the proposed model has practical advantages over other urban land-use models in terms of operational cost because it is relatively easy to operate within the input–output framework and it has fewer requirements of data and parameter calibration; and (3) the proposed model has the capability to incorporate changes in attractiveness, accessibility, land availability, and other policy variables in projecting and estimating urban land-use demand, which is an important feature for policy evaluation. The simulation results prove the feasibility of the proposed model as an urban-policy evaluation tool, which provides significant implications to urban policy analysts. The simulation results indicate that a growth-control policy decreases output and employment for the overall urban economy. The model results also show that a city with a growth-control policy is negatively impacted with regards to output, employment, population, and residential and nonresidential land-use demand, whereas the surrounding cities receive positive spillover effects due to the land-use regulation.

Date: 2005
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/a3723 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:envira:v:37:y:2005:i:7:p:1311-1328

DOI: 10.1068/a3723

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Environment and Planning A
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().