Evaluating the No Cold Calling Zones in Peterborough, England: Application of a Novel Statistical Method for Evaluating Neighbourhood Policing Policies

Guangquan Li, Robert Haining, Sylvia Richardson and Nicky Best
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Guangquan Li: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College, London, England and MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College, London W2 1PG, England
Robert Haining: Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Site, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England
Sylvia Richardson: MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, University Forvie Site, Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 0SR, England
Nicky Best: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College, London, England and MRC-HPA Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College, London W2 1PG, England

Environment and Planning A, 2013, vol. 45, issue 8, 2012-2026

Abstract: Some police forces in the UK institute ‘No Cold Calling’ (NCC) zones to reduce cold callings (unsolicited visits to sell products or services), which are often associated with rogue trading and distraction burglary. This paper evaluates the NCC-targeted areas chosen in 2005–06 in Peterborough and reports whether they experienced a measurable impact on their burglary rates in the period up to 2008. Time-series data for burglary at the census output area level are analysed using a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach to address issues of data sparsity and lack of randomised allocation of areas to treatment groups that are often encountered in small-area quantitative policy evaluation. To ensure internal validity, we employ the interrupted time-series quasi-experimental design embedded within a matched case-control framework. Results reveal a positive impact of NCC zones on reducing burglary rates in the targeted areas compared with the control areas.

Keywords: policy evaluation; neighbourhood policing; time series data; interrupted time series analysis; Bayesian hierarchical models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:envira:v:45:y:2013:i:8:p:2012-2026

DOI: 10.1068/a45374

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