Global Oil Production: Forecasts and Methodologies

Roger Bentley and Godfrey Boyle
Additional contact information
Roger Bentley: Department of Cybernetics, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AY, England
Godfrey Boyle: Energy and Environment Research Unit, The Open University, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, England

Environment and Planning B, 2008, vol. 35, issue 4, 609-626

Abstract: A range of forecasts of global oil production made between 1956 and the present day are listed. For the majority of these the methodology used to generate the forecast is described. The paper distinguishes between three types of forecast: group 1—quantitative analyses which predict that global oil production will reach a resource-limited peak in the near term, and certainly before the year 2020; group 2—forecasts that use quantitative methods, but which see no production peak within the forecast's time horizon (typically 2020 or 2030); group 3—nonquantitative analyses that rule out a resource-limited oil peak within the foreseeable future. The paper analyses these forecast types and suggests that group 1 forecasts are the most realistic.

Date: 2008
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/b33063t (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:envirb:v:35:y:2008:i:4:p:609-626

DOI: 10.1068/b33063t

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Environment and Planning B
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().