Analyzing Crime Displacement with a Simulation Approach

Ninghua Wang, Lin Liu and John E Eck
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Ninghua Wang: Department of Geography, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182-4493, USA
Lin Liu: School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China 510275 and Department of Geography, University of Cincinnati, 401 Braunsteain Hall, Cincinnati, OH 45221, USA
John E Eck: School of Criminal Justice, University of Cincinnati, PO Box 210389, 660 Dyer Hall, Cincinnati, OH 45221-0389, USA

Environment and Planning B, 2014, vol. 41, issue 2, 359-374

Abstract: Crime tends to cluster in small areas. Police have taken advantage of this by identifying these ‘hotspots' of crime and concentrating their resources in these locations. This practice has shown evidence of reducing crime in the hotspot area. While it is possible that the benefits of such reduction might be diffused to the surrounding areas, one criticism of this practice is that the crime in the hotspot may also be displaced to the surrounding areas. A number of empirical studies have investigated the spatial pattern of crime displacement. However, few have attempted to uncover the mechanisms that lead to the displacement of crime. In this paper we present a theory-driven approach that applies agent-based modeling to simulate the mechanism of crime and policing. The processes that drive possible displacement of crime are investigated through experiments in a computational laboratory—SPACES. Our results reveal that crime cannot be displaced easily because opportunities for crime are limited in low-crime areas and offenders are often attached to the area where they perform their routine activities.

Keywords: crime simulation; agent-based modeling; SPACES; hotspot policing; crime displacement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:envirb:v:41:y:2014:i:2:p:359-374

DOI: 10.1068/b37120

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