A hybrid mathematical model for urban land-use planning in association with environmental–ecological consideration under uncertainty

Shukui Tan, Lu Zhang, Min Zhou, Yanan Li, Siliang Wang, Bing Kuang and Xiang Luo

Environment and Planning B, 2017, vol. 44, issue 1, 54-79

Abstract: Various uncertainties exist in most urban land-use allocation systems; however, they have not been considered in most traditional urban land-use allocation methods. In this study, an interval-probabilistic urban land-use allocation model is developed based on a hybrid interval-probabilistic programming method. The developed interval-probabilistic urban land-use allocation model can deal with uncertainties expressed as intervals and probability distributions; moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying (or risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty; the interval-probabilistic urban land-use allocation model not only considers economic factors, but also involves environmental and ecological constraints, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in the urban land-use system. The developed model is applied to a case of long-term land-use allocation planning in the city of Wuhan, China. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The desired system benefit from the land-use system will be between $ [1781.921, 2290.970] × 10 9 under the minimum violating probabilities, and in this condition, the optimized areas of industrial land, commercial land and landfill will be [35,739, 42,402] ha, [58,572, 62,450] ha, and [903, 1087] ha. Results provide the decision makers of Wuhan with desired land-use allocation patterns and environmental policies, which are related to a variety of trade-offs between system benefit and constraint-violation risk. Willingness to accept low benefit from land-use system will guarantee meeting the environmental protection objective. A strong desire to acquire high system benefit will run into the risk of violating environmental constraint.

Keywords: Uncertainty; urban land-use allocation; hybrid interval-probabilistic programming; environment; ecosystem (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0265813515608641 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:envirb:v:44:y:2017:i:1:p:54-79

DOI: 10.1177/0265813515608641

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Environment and Planning B
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().