Aspirations and realities of polycentric development: Insights from multi-source data into the emerging urban form of Shanghai

Tianren Yang, Ying Jin, Longxu Yan and Pei Pei
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Tianren Yang: University of Cambridge, UK; Tongji University, China
Ying Jin: University of Cambridge, UK
Longxu Yan: MIT Senseable City Laboratory, USA; Tongji University, China

Environment and Planning B, 2019, vol. 46, issue 7, 1264-1280

Abstract: The polycentric idea has recently been reinvigorated in many rapidly urbanising countries, but the paucity of reliable and disaggregated data has so far made it almost impossible to understand the policy feedback there. This paper capitalises on official statistical data, novel online data, and proprietary digital data, and builds a dynamic spatial equilibrium model for understanding the past lessons and future options for developing new urban sub-centres. Following the post-2010 situation of a negative sign of monocentric bid-rent curve and physical polycentric growth, we assemble, corroborate, and validate multi-source data sets within the model to explore possible polycentric development scenarios (2010–2035). The data analysis and model tests show that over time, the balance between jobs and housing provision appears to have been lost, and it is insufficient job opportunities in the planned sub-centres rather than any lack of housing development that has led to the loss of this balance. Localised circumstances have also played a role in this overarching pattern of evolution. The insights are cogent for current decision making regarding polycentric planning and growth, especially in developing countries.

Keywords: Polycentric development; property market; land use–transportation interaction models; online data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:envirb:v:46:y:2019:i:7:p:1264-1280

DOI: 10.1177/2399808319864972

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