Future shrinking cities on the globe: A projection map for 2020–2100 based on global gridded population dataset

Xinyu Wang and Ying Long

Environment and Planning B, 2023, vol. 50, issue 7, 1994-1997

Abstract: Shrinking cities have become increasingly prevalent worldwide due to various factors, which pose serious challenges to affected areas in terms of population decline, economic decline, and spatial deterioration. While existing research studies have focused on identifying shrinking cities, there is a need for global projections to mitigate uncertainties in their growth trajectories. Spatially explicit population grids offer a new approach to identifying potentially shrinking cities with sufficient spatial resolution. By utilizing a global gridded population dataset from 2020 to 2100 under the SSP2 (Middle of the Road) scenario, we produce a global projection map for future shrinking cities. Among the total 19,024 natural cities, 9682 cities (50.9%) will face population decline and 1751 cities (9.2%) may lose more than half population by 2100. Cities in East Asia and East Europe may face serious population decline.

Keywords: Shrinking city; future projection; natural city; population grid (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:envirb:v:50:y:2023:i:7:p:1994-1997

DOI: 10.1177/23998083231186153

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