A Theory of Surprises

R H Atkin
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R H Atkin: Department of Mathematics, University of Essex, Colchester, Essex, England

Environment and Planning B, 1981, vol. 8, issue 4, 359-365

Abstract: The idea of a surprise is developed from that of a p -event. It is compared with probabilistic ideas of expected and unexpected, and an algebra of surprises is shown to contain elementary probability algebra as a trivial case. Some indication is given of how the ideas might be used to deal with problems of ‘low risk with disastrous consequences’—such as the dangers associated with atomic power stations.

Date: 1981
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:envirb:v:8:y:1981:i:4:p:359-365

DOI: 10.1068/b080359

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