Changing labour migration flows after Brexit: An analysis of UK survey and administrative data

Alessandro Cusimano, Chiara Paola Donegani and Stephen McKay

European Journal of Industrial Relations, 2025, vol. 31, issue 1, 53-74

Abstract: Following ‘Brexit’, the UK leaving the EU, we analyse the effects of changes in the legal framework on EU residents and compare them with UK citizens, employing a difference-in-differences framework. The research focuses on several dependent variables, including labour supply and wages, self-employment rates, and changes in industry, using the Annual Population Survey (APS) data 2012−2022 in the UK (itself based on the Labour Force Survey (LFS)), National Insurance Number registrations, and visas issued. The evidence from our analysis on EU post-Brexit migration towards the UK, together with the observed overall increase in rates of (non-EU) net migration, shows rebalancing between EU and non-EU groups. Effects are strongest at the lower-skilled end of the labour market. However, wages for UK natives and EU migrants did not change with respect to each other, controlling for occupation, industry, and other factors.

Keywords: migrants; post-Brexit labour market; labour market outcomes; low-skilled jobs; substitution effect; J61; F22; J21; J15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:eurjou:v:31:y:2025:i:1:p:53-74

DOI: 10.1177/09596801241268291

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