Myanmarâ€™s Manufacturing Exports After the Lifting of Economic Sanctions
Hiroyuki Taguchi and
Thet Mon Soe
Foreign Trade Review, 2021, vol. 56, issue 2, 147-164
This article aims to evaluate Myanmarâ€™s exports of manufacturing products by using a gravity trade model for emerging ASEAN economies. The main focus of this study is to assess whether Myanmarâ€™s manufacturing exports have recovered in terms of the gravity trade standard of the other emerging ASEAN countries for the post-sanction period of 2013â€“2018. Unlike the previous studies, this article contributes to the literature by targeting the post-sanction period and by applying both in-sample and out-of-sample estimation methods to ensure the consistency and robustness of their results. The main findings from the gravity trade model estimation are summarised as follows: first, Myanmarâ€™s manufacturing exports for the post-sanction period are still significantly below the level of the gravity trade standard. Second, the downward deviation from the standard could be explained by the two Myanmar-specific factors, that is, the low institutional quality and the Dutch Disease effect in Myanmarâ€™s exports to Western countries, but not fully in those to Asian countries. The additional factor for the deviation against Asian countries might come from Myanmarâ€™s sluggish participation in the international production networks. JEL Codes: F14, O53
Keywords: Myanmarâ€™s manufacturing exports; lifting economic sanctions; gravity trade model; in-sample and out-of-sample estimations; institutional quality; Dutch Disease (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:fortra:v:56:y:2021:i:2:p:147-164
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