The Role of Contagion and Integration in Risk Management Measures

Jaime de Jesus Filho, Paulo Matos and Ronald Fonseca

Global Business Review, 2023, vol. 24, issue 5, 1111-1128

Abstract: We add to the discussion on risk management by proposing an innovative measure of Value at Risk (VaR), which relaxes some statistical assumptions. We provide a VaR based on time-varying moments of the best-fitting probability distribution function. This risk measure can capture the cross-effects associated with contagion and integration through the estimation of a multivariate autoregressive moving average–generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity (ARMA–GARCH). We implement an empirical exercise to account for the risk management of some of the main worldwide financial sector indices of G20 economies. According to Basel back-testing and back-testing that deals with the frequency and conditionality of losses exceeding VaR, this innovative VaR seems to perform better than Basel VaR.

Keywords: Value at Risk; Time-varying moments; Laplace and Hyperbolic secant distributions; Cross-effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:globus:v:24:y:2023:i:5:p:1111-1128

DOI: 10.1177/0972150920933857

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