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Forecast of Indian Readymade Garments Exports Using the ARIMA Model

Deepak Chawla and Ramesh Behl
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Deepak Chawla: International Management Institute, New Delhi, India
Ramesh Behl: International Management Institute, New Delhi, India

Global Business Review, 2002, vol. 3, issue 1, 63-76

Abstract: In this article, an attempt is made to build an ARIMA model to forecast exports of Indian readymade garments. The monthly data on readymade garments exports for the period April 1991 to December 2000 is used to build the model. The forecasts are obtained for the period January 2001 to December 2001 by using the ARIMA model. The accuracy of ex-post forecast is also tested. The forecasts indicate a slow down in the growth of exports in January to March 2001 as compared to the same months in the year 2000. The article concludes by suggesting a review of government policy towards this industry.

Date: 2002
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:globus:v:3:y:2002:i:1:p:63-76

DOI: 10.1177/097215090200300105

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