Twenty-First-Century Hyper-power, China or USA: Is Demography the Determinant?

Narottam Gaan

Jadavpur Journal of International Relations, 2021, vol. 25, issue 2, 143-166

Abstract: In the aftermath glow of the end of the Cold War was seen faintly the swaggering footsteps of a triumphant USA ready to architect a new world attic with the mortars and bricks of its own politico-economic ideology. But the engendered vibe and euphoria bedecking America proved to be ephemeral with its dismal economic straits, failure of overseas military adventurism, terrorist attack on its trade center and loosening grip over global events, rise of other powers, and unwillingness of the world to kowtow to American lines. China, in contrast, showed ascendancy in economic growth, rising productive forces, military modernization, and ambitious global designs, giving rise to the neorealist zero-sum understanding that eclipsing USA has lent to the ascent of China in the global scene. But this kind of analysis is mostly founded on traditional paradigm of politico-military and economic power. What is primarily ignored or marginalized in the analysis of power structure in global politics is the demography, that is, aging population structure. The present article focuses on aging population structure of the USA, China and other great powers and tries to challenge this traditionally ingrained understanding of power structure and holds on to the view that if the current population structure is any indication, America will rule the roost in global politics.

Keywords: One child policy; rising public debt and growth slowdown; strains on military buildup; economic decline; demographic exceptionalism (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:jadint:v:25:y:2021:i:2:p:143-166

DOI: 10.1177/09735984211035180

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