Immediate decisions based on long-term consequence evaluation for a radiological event

Tercio Brum, Sergio X Lima, José Carlos C Amorim, Ricardo M Stenders, Matjaž Prah, Helio C Vital and Edson R Andrade

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, 2021, vol. 18, issue 4, 365-373

Abstract: This validation study focuses on potential risks and subsequent challenges, such as family dismemberment due to the response to an off-site radiological release. Threats that may drive early decisions from a long-term perspective, such as cancer development, were discussed. In order to provide radiation doses, environmental measurements were performed by using a military helicopter. Such data was then inserted into the BEIR VII equations to evaluate the excess relative risk (ERR) of leukemia. However, there may be an issue in the initial phase of the response. Family dismemberment becomes practical due to the different radiation sensitiveness, which is a function of age and sex. Such a situation may arise from requirements posed both by the immediate response and future concerns (ERR). Evaluation of the results suggests that children and young women are more vulnerable than adults. A more detailed study focused on the most appropriate mathematical method to determine the moment in which family dismemberment, if necessary, should be conducted. This sensitive issue is very important during the early phase of the response due to the fact that it can greatly influence future decisions by anticipating possible consequences that have a large potential to influence the evolution of future costs.

Keywords: Radiation; emergency; aerial monitoring; decision (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:joudef:v:18:y:2021:i:4:p:365-373

DOI: 10.1177/1548512920908665

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