Use of agent-based modeling to model intermediate force capabilities in (counter)mobility crowd scenarios

Jessica Afara, Victoria Ajila, Hannah Macdonell and Peter Dobias

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, 2024, vol. 21, issue 4, 395-404

Abstract: In this paper, we use an agent-based model (ABM) to run (counter)mobility scenarios to explore which characteristics of intermediate force capabilities (IFC) are relevant to these, and how they can affect outcomes in gray zone conflicts. Using an ABM called Map-Aware Non-Uniform Automata (MANA), developed by the New Zealand Defense Technology Agency, we implemented two scenarios where the friendly forces’ mobility was limited by large groups of civilians. Then, we employed data farming and analytics methods to analyze the data and identify key parameters influencing the outcomes. The main parameters appeared to be the IFC Range, Power (a measure of the duration of the effect), and Crowd Density. Future research could include a wide range of mobility scenarios and possibly a more detailed IFC representation.

Keywords: Intermediate force capabilities; agent-based modeling; (counter)mobility; armed-conflict; permutation feature importance; shapely additive explanations; Map-Aware Non-Uniform Automata (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:joudef:v:21:y:2024:i:4:p:395-404

DOI: 10.1177/15485129221141717

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