Preliminary debris risk assessment for mega-constellations in low and medium earth orbit due to satellite breakup

Joseph Canoy and Robert Bettinger

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, 2026, vol. 23, issue 3, 409-421

Abstract: This paper presents a theoretical analysis of the potential risk posed by artificial debris clouds in low Earth orbit (LEO) from mega-constellations, modeled after current communication constellations such as Starlink and OneWeb with 750 satellites each. The analysis examines three different constellation designs: a low-altitude LEO, a high-altitude LEO, and a medium Earth orbit (MEO) constellation, which will be positioned using the Walker-Delta design. The study is based on physics-based digital mission engineering and a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The simulation involves debris generated from a single breakup of one randomly selected satellite per run, but does not consider cascading debris events. This debris cloud is propagated for 1 week and how it interacts with the mega-constellation is recorded. The results show an average of 705.65 potential conjunctions within the LEO constellation, with 14.40% of those being considered catastrophic, and an average of 165.5 conjunctions in the MEO constellation, with 0.72% considered catastrophic.

Keywords: Debris; mega-constellation; survivability; OneWeb; Starlink (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:joudef:v:23:y:2026:i:3:p:409-421

DOI: 10.1177/15485129231163868

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