Data Adjustment and Forecast Performance

Andrew Blake and Nigel Pain

National Institute Economic Review, 1991, vol. 135, issue 1, 66-78

Abstract: This article demonstrates how the use of balanced data can affect a forecasting exercise. The forecast published by the National Institute in November 1989 is revised with the constant and current price residual errors in the National Accounts being assigned to component parts in a manner consistent with the overall pattern of imbalances within the accounts at the time. One of the main results is that preliminary estimates for some components of the accounts, available at the time of the forecast, may also need to be adjusted. This is required to ensure that the forecast is consistent with both balanced data over the future and the structure of the model itself.

Date: 1991
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