At a Glance

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National Institute Economic Review, 2000, vol. 172, issue 1, 2-2

Abstract: • The budget was expansionary, bringing about a cumulative fiscal loosening of 1.5-2 per cent of GDP over the next four years.• As a consequence, the pound and long-term interest rates will be higher, while immediate pressure to raise short-term rates is reduced.• After a further quarter point increase in the repo rate to 6.25 per cent, we expect a pause in monetary tightening for the rest of the year.• Sterling's strength will hit manufacturing which will grow by only 1.2 per cent in 2000, compared with overall GDP growth of 2.8 per cent.• Despite continuing low claimant unemployment and earnings growth of 5.5 per cent in 2000, the labour market is not over-stretched.

Date: 2000
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