EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The Prediction of Business Cycle Phases: Financial Variables and International Linkages

Denise Osborn () and Marianne Sensier
Additional contact information
Marianne Sensier: Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research, School of Economic Studies, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, Marianne.Sensier@man.ac.uk

National Institute Economic Review, 2002, vol. 182, issue 1, 96-105

Abstract: This paper discusses recent research at the Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research on the prediction of the expansion and recession phases of the business cycle for the UK, US, Germany, France and Italy. Financial variables are important predictors in these models, with the stock market playing a key role in the US but not the European countries, including the UK. In contrast, international linkages are important for the European countries. Our models suggest that the US and German economies have now emerged from the recession of 2001, and that all five countries will be in expansion during the third quarter of this year.

Date: 2002
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://ner.sagepub.com/content/182/1/96.abstract (text/html)

Related works:
Working Paper: The Prediction of Business Cycle Phases: Financial Variables and International Linkages (2002) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:niesru:v:182:y:2002:i:1:p:96-105

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in National Institute Economic Review from National Institute of Economic and Social Research Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().

 
Page updated 2019-07-28
Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:182:y:2002:i:1:p:96-105