Forecast of Indian Automobile Industry Using Mathematical Models

Naresh Kumar and Balraj Singh

Paradigm, 2003, vol. 7, issue 2, 105-116

Abstract: New product diffusion forecasting is one of the most important areas for strategic and policy making perspectives. A number of innovation diffusion models are available in the literatures that have been applied to forecast new product diffusion. In this paper production and market forecast of Indian automobile industry (passenger cars, commercial vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers) is analysed with the help of non-linear innovation diffusion and substitution models. Findings show that India has a growing market for passenger cars and commercial vehicles are showing saturation phase whereas three wheelers are growing marginally. Further, results show that in two wheelers category motorcycles have emerging market substituting scooters and mopeds.

Date: 2003
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:padigm:v:7:y:2003:i:2:p:105-116

DOI: 10.1177/0971890720030207

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