The Political Business Cycle and Republican Administrations: an Empirical Investigation

David Findlay ()

Public Finance Review, 1990, vol. 18, issue 3, 328-338

Abstract: This article examines the effects of the political business cycle on unemployment for the first quarter of 1951 through the fourth quarter of 1987. The results for the autoregressive model provide empirical support for the existence of a political business cycle during Republican administrations. A number of simulations are presented to illustrate the longer-term effects of the political business cycle on unemployment for this model and for the 1986 model offered by Allen, Sulock, and Sabo. These results suggest that the unemployment effects of the electoral cycle are not only statistically significant, but are also economically significant.

Date: 1990
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:18:y:1990:i:3:p:328-338

DOI: 10.1177/109114219001800305

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