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A Reply to “A Replication of “Millionaire Migration and State Taxation of Top Incomes

Cristobal Young () and Charles Varner
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Cristobal Young: Department of Sociology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA
Charles Varner: Center on Poverty and Inequality, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA

Public Finance Review, 2015, vol. 43, issue 2, 226-234

Abstract: This response discusses the findings and criticisms in Cohen, Lai, and Steindel (CLS). Despite the skeptical tone of their article, the CLS analysis confirms our core conclusion of a small (or very small) migration effect of the millionaire tax. The range of estimates reported by CLS, including the wrong-signed estimates they find, scarcely reaches beyond the 95 percent confidence interval originally reported by Young and Varner. The critical modeling choice made by CLS is to exclude the observed in-migration of millionaires in the years following the tax increase. Even this leaves small migration effects, with an implied revenue cost that is a small fraction of the additional revenues generated by the millionaire tax.

Keywords: millionaire; migration; state income tax; natural experiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:43:y:2015:i:2:p:226-234