Modeling Preparatory Commitment and Non-repeatable Decisions

Stephen L. Morgan
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Stephen L. Morgan: Department of Sociology, 366 Uris Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY slm45@cornell.edu

Rationality and Society, 2002, vol. 14, issue 4, 387-429

Abstract: For many decisions with uncertain outcomes, prior preparation determines the payoffs received following choices. The payoff to an investment in human capital, for example, is a function of the ability to benefit from the course of training undertaken, and this ability is at least partly a function of one's self-regulated prior preparation. How should we use rational choice theory to model a goal-directed individual's preparatory commitment toward a consequential future decision if we cannot assume that preferences are fixed, that individuals engage in perfect information-processing, and that their expectations obey statistical decision theory? Introducing the concept of prefigurative commitment while invoking a stochastic decision tree for forecasts of future behavior, I show how a bounded rationality information-processing and evaluation mechanism generates courses of preparatory commitment decisions that differ from those that would result from strict adherence to orthodox decision theory. Throughout the development of the model, I discuss how the stochastic decision-tree framework can enhance sociological models of educational attainment.

Keywords: bounded rationality; decision theory; educational attainment; expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:ratsoc:v:14:y:2002:i:4:p:387-429

DOI: 10.1177/1043463102014004001

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