Ruminations on Challenges to Prediction with Rational Choice Models

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Additional contact information
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-6010, USA bdm@hoover.stanford.edu

Rationality and Society, 2003, vol. 15, issue 1, 136-147

Abstract: The ultimate test of any social science theory lies in its ability to predict and explain real behavior. Converting formal theory into a form that can be tested against real-time predictions, however, is a difficult and demanding task. The growing literature on applied formal models provides an opportunity to investigate how robust predictions are to the relaxation of specific assumptions. Here I investigate the robustness of applied theories in the light of multiple equilibria and the chaos theorems of McKelvey and Schofield, alternative dimensionality assumptions, modifications of conditions for preference aggregation, and bounded rationality - all with an eye toward their implications for the accuracy of predictions regarding outcomes and decision dynamics. We come to a better understanding of the challenges that remain in converting formal models into practical tools to guide the assessment and making of complex decisions.

Keywords: applied models; bounded rationality; common conjectures; common knowledge; game theory; multiple equilibria; prediction; preference aggregation; social choice theory; spatial models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1043463103015001076 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:ratsoc:v:15:y:2003:i:1:p:136-147

DOI: 10.1177/1043463103015001076

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Rationality and Society
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().