Integrated treatment of model and parameter uncertainties through a Bayesian approach

Enrique López Droguett and Ali Mosleh

Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2013, vol. 227, issue 1, 41-54

Abstract: Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches have been proposed for treating model uncertainty; in general, model and parameter uncertainties have been tackled as separate domains. This article discusses a Bayesian framework for an integrated assessment of model and parameter uncertainties. The approach accommodates cases involving multiple dependent models, and we also demonstrate that under certain conditions, the model uncertainty assessment approaches known as model averaging and uncertainty-factor are special cases of the proposed formulation. These features are also demonstrated by means of a few examples of interest in the risk and safety domain.

Keywords: Model uncertainty; uncertainty assessment; Bayes theorem; models; risk assessment; reliability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:risrel:v:227:y:2013:i:1:p:41-54

DOI: 10.1177/1748006X12461332

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