Hidden Markov model framework for industrial maintenance activities

Bernard Roblès, Manuel Avila, Florent Duculty, Pascal Vrignat, Stephane Bégot and Frédéric Kratz

Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2014, vol. 228, issue 3, 230-242

Abstract: This article deals with modelization of industrial process by using hidden Markov model. The process is seen as a discrete event system. We propose different structures based on Markov automata, called topologies. A synthetic hidden Markov model is designed in order to match to a real industrial process. The models are intended to decode industrial maintenance observations (also called “symbol†). Symbols are produced with a corresponding degradation level (also called “state†). These 2-tuple (symbol, state) are known as Markov chains, also called “a signature.†Hence, these various 2-tuple are implemented in the proposed topologies by using the Baum–Welch learning algorithm (decoding by forward variable) and the segmental K-means learning (decoding by Viterbi). We assess different frameworks (topology, learning and decoding algorithm, distribution) by relevancy measurements on model outputs. Then, we determine the most relevant framework for use in maintenance activities. Afterward, we try to minimize the size of the learning data. Thus, we could evaluate the model by using “sliding windows†of data. Finally, an industrial application is developed and compared with this framework. Our goal is to improve worker safety, maintenance policy, process reliability and reduce CO 2 emissions in the industrial sector.

Keywords: Hidden Markov model; model selection; predictive maintenance; learning algorithms; decoding algorithms; statistical tests; uncertainties (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:risrel:v:228:y:2014:i:3:p:230-242

DOI: 10.1177/1748006X14522458

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