A cellular automaton model for offshore evacuation risk assessment

Michel Grand Blanc, Andrea Carpignano, Sandra Dulla and Stefano Marolo

Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2017, vol. 231, issue 2, 138-145

Abstract: A new approach to assess the risk associated with jetfire and poolfire accidents on an offshore oil facility using cellular automata is presented. This model simulates many accident scenarios, and the related evacuation processes, adopting a Monte Carlo approach in order to evaluate an average consequence and then a more realistic value of the risk associated with these accidents. The results of this new method are discussed and compared with the results obtained from a traditional approach over a real case study. The comparison shows that this new approach supplies lower risk-related results, still being conservative; besides, it can supply further information useful in the design phase.

Keywords: Evacuation escape and rescue; offshore facilities; risk analysis; cellular automata; Monte Carlo method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:risrel:v:231:y:2017:i:2:p:138-145

DOI: 10.1177/1748006X16688607

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