The negative log-gamma prior distribution for Bayesian assessment of system reliability

Roger Zoh, Alyson Wilson, Scott Vander Wiel and Earl Lawrence

Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2018, vol. 232, issue 3, 308-319

Abstract: This paper presents the negative log-gamma distribution as a prior distribution useful for Bayesian assessment of system reliability. When the scale parameter is held fixed, the negative log-gamma distribution is closed under products, making it convenient for specifying priors for series systems. In particular, for series systems, negative log-gamma component priors can be specified to give an exact desired system prior and vice versa. We consider pass/fail data at the system and component levels for both static and time-varying data collection schemes and propose two new prior distributions for analyzing time-varying reliability. Finally, we consider an application of the negative log-gamma to a missile reliability problem and illustrate diagnostics useful for developing the priors.

Keywords: Bayesian; elicitation; posterior distribution; prior distribution; negative log-gamma (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:risrel:v:232:y:2018:i:3:p:308-319

DOI: 10.1177/1748006X17692154

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