A new cumulative damage model for time-dependent reliability analysis of deteriorating structures

Junxiang Li, Jianqiao Chen and Zhiqiang Chen

Journal of Risk and Reliability, 2020, vol. 234, issue 2, 290-302

Abstract: Performance and reliability of structures will deteriorate with the effects of loads, environment, and interior factors of materials. In this article, a novel cumulative damage model is developed for time-dependent reliability analysis of deteriorating structures. The deterioration is a combination of three stochastic processes: the gradual deterioration posed by aging effects, the sudden deterioration caused by transient loads, and the additional deterioration introduced by sustained loads. The aging effect is modeled as a gamma process, while the transient load is described by a Poisson process. The sustained load is modeled by a stationary binomial process and a Poisson square wave process, respectively. The load threshold for three different scenarios are all considered and applied to not only the transient loads but also the sustained loads. The time-dependent reliability of deteriorating structures is then evaluated based on this model via semi-analytical methods or numerical simulation methods. Three numerical examples and an example involving a natural gas pipeline are used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model for computing the time-dependent reliability.

Keywords: Gamma process; Poisson process; stationary binomial process; Poisson square wave process; load threshold; time-dependent reliability analysis; deteriorating structures (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:risrel:v:234:y:2020:i:2:p:290-302

DOI: 10.1177/1748006X19886157

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