 Exchange Rate Movements and China-East Africa Trade Balance: A New Perspective From RMBPengyu Ren and Ibrahim Sakouba SAGE Open, 2024, vol. 14, issue 1, 21582440241230805 Abstract: This study estimates the long-term impact of Chinese RMB exchange rate movements on the trade balance between China and the Eastern African Belt and Road Initiative countries. The Pedroni cointegration analysis and the fully modified and dynamic OLS techniques are applied to the dataset from UNComtrade and China Statistical Yearbook 2019. Some specification novelties are the use of imports and exports as independent variables. By so doing, the paper proposes an alternative measure of the trade balance. We find that the RMB exchange rate movements are stable during the sample period and slightly affect the trade balance between China and the Eastern African BRI countries. Additionally, the study does not find evidence supporting the J-curve effect in China-East Africa trade balance. The empirical results suggest that the Eastern African BRI countries would gain much more trading collectively with China than individually. Therefore, the study strongly recommends that the East African Community accelerate its integration process and establish Export Quotas for trade outside the bloc. Keywords: exchange rate movements; trade balance; J-curve; Pedroni cointegration; Belt and Road Initiative (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:sagope:v:14:y:2024:i:1:p:21582440241230805 DOI: 10.1177/21582440241230805 Access Statistics for this article More articles in SAGE Open |
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