Application of the Theory of Self-Organized Criticality to the Investigation of Historical Processes

Dmitry S. Zhukov, Valery V. Kanishchev and Sergey K. Lyamin

SAGE Open, 2016, vol. 6, issue 4, 2158244016683216

Abstract: The article demonstrates heuristic possibilities of the theory of self-organized criticality (SOC) in the investigation of historical processes. Key SOC concepts and ideas are explained. Specifically, tools that can be used for identifying pink noise, an attribute of a critical state, are described. The results of spectral analyses of historical demographic data (i.e., birth and death rates in Russian settlements in the 19th and 20th centuries) and historical market data (i.e., grain prices in regions of Russia in the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries) are presented. It was found that noise color in the data series differed substantially across different periods. Based on these observations, the assumption that a change in noise color can serve as an indicator of changes in historical processes was made. In some cases, this indicator can enable one to establish the time, speed, and direction of state changes in historical processes. Pink noise was discovered in the examined birth and death rate dynamics, as well as in the dynamics of prices across periods. The described methods have the potential to be used beyond the limits of the presently considered historical subjects, including in investigations of different types of social transformation.

Keywords: self-organized criticality; social transformation; research methodology and design; history; social change and modernization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2158244016683216 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:sagope:v:6:y:2016:i:4:p:2158244016683216

DOI: 10.1177/2158244016683216

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in SAGE Open
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().