Causes of Effects and Effects of Causes

Judea Pearl

Sociological Methods & Research, 2015, vol. 44, issue 1, 149-164

Abstract: This article summarizes a conceptual framework and simple mathematical methods of estimating the probability that one event was a necessary cause of another, as interpreted by lawmakers. We show that the fusion of observational and experimental data can yield informative bounds that, under certain circumstances, meet legal criteria of causation. We further investigate the circumstances under which such bounds can emerge, and the philosophical dilemma associated with determining individual cases from statistical data.

Keywords: probability of necessity; probability of causation; counterfactuals; legal liability; attribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:somere:v:44:y:2015:i:1:p:149-164

DOI: 10.1177/0049124114562614

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