An Application of PAR Models for Tourism Forecasting

Paulo Rodrigues and Pedro Gouveia

Tourism Economics, 2004, vol. 10, issue 3, 281-303

Abstract: This paper extends the existing literature on tourism forecasting by developing an application study based on periodic models. The need for this type of approach derives from the common procedure in tourism literature of classifying series into three seasons: peak, shoulder and off-peak. This classification is useful in identifying more parsimonious periodic models when compared with unrestricted periodic monthly models. The authors apply their proposed models on several tourism series collected and analysed from Portugal's southernmost province, Algarve. The economy of this region relies heavily on the tourism industry, catering largely for the European market. Besides statistically validating these models, the authors compare their forecasting ability with other models in the current literature. The results show that the models presented achieve a superior forecasting performance.

Keywords: tourism forecasting; periodic models; seasonality; Algarve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5367/0000000041895085 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:10:y:2004:i:3:p:281-303

DOI: 10.5367/0000000041895085

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Tourism Economics
Bibliographic data for series maintained by SAGE Publications ().