Methods for Measuring the Effects of the EU Presidency on International Tourism

Egon Smeral and Michael Wüuger
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Egon Smeral: Austrian Institute of Economic Research, PO Box 91, 1103 Vienna, Austria and University of Innsbruck, Tourism and Service Management Unit, Universitätsstraße 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
Michael Wüuger: Austrian Institute of Economic Research, PO Box 91, 1103 Vienna, Austria

Tourism Economics, 2008, vol. 14, issue 2, 313-324

Abstract: This study uses time-series techniques and econometric approaches to quantify the effects that organizing an EU presidency has on the tourism exports of a country. The approach of explaining tourism revenues by a time-series intervention model filters out special effects (data discontinuations, exchange rates, events, media reports, etc) by outlier detection methods, maps influences from trends, the business cycle and seasonal effects in an ARIMA model and depicts the effect of an EU presidency by way of an intervention variable. Using econometric indicator approaches, a country's tourism exports are controlled for seasonal and special influences, habitual effects and demand trends by way of suitable indicators and a dummy variable is used to test whether the EU presidency makes a statistically significant contribution to the revenues from tourism.

Keywords: EU presidency; econometric indicator approach; intervention models; outlier detection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:toueco:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:313-324

DOI: 10.5367/000000008784460454

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